It’s been 34 years since the Soviet Union controlled Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. But the Ukraine conflict has people thinking: Are we ready for war?
Two photos show Jelgava, Latvia. On the left is Jelgava before World War Two (Credit: The Archive of Jelgava History and Art Museum). On the right is Jelgava now.
Aldis Barševskis carries a mental map of the old Latvian city of Jelgava.
Barševskis is the chief collector for the Jelgava History and Art Museum. It is one of the few buildings remaining in the Latvian city that predates World War II. Lately, the history museum has been working on a plan to preserve the most valuable objects in its collection in case of emergencies like natural disasters. Or war.
During World War II, brutal fighting between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany ravaged the city. Jelgava is estimated to have lost approximately 90% of its buildings and 80% of its inhabitants, making the losses of war clear and present for the people who now live in the city.
Walking the streets of Jelgava, Barševskis can envision what the city looked like before world war. The museum offers a sobering portrayal of the devastation — a flourishing European city reduced to dust. Now, it also feels like a warning. Just on the other side of Latvia’s Russian-friendly neighbor, Belarus, war rages between Ukraine and Russia. Latvia shares a 276 kilometre (171 mile) border with Russia.
Barševskis said there are a few people like him in Jelgava who collect old photographs and postcards that depict how the city once was. Jelgava was rebuilt in the Soviet era, but its charm disappeared. Some, like Barševskis, still miss the old city square with a lively market surrounded by beautiful buildings.
“You always feel this pain for old Jelgava,” he said. This loss makes it particularly devastating to see the destruction in Ukraine and face some chance of history repeating itself in Latvia, too.
The protection of NATO
Once occupied by the Soviet Union, the three northeastern European countries often referred to as the Baltics — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — are now members of NATO and the European Union. However, Russia has repeatedly threatened the countries, violated their airspace and placed their political leaders on a wanted list. Many European leaders have recently voiced concerns that these countries could once again become targets of the Russian war machine.
Late last year, Belgian army chief Michel Hofman stated that if Russia prevails in the war with Ukraine, it might attack Moldova or the Baltics. Both the Danish defense minister and Estonian prime minister have suggested that Russia might test NATO’s borders within the next 3 to 5 years.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has echoed it, suggesting a timeframe of five years. The Polish security chief has estimated that NATO’s eastern flank countries only have three years to prepare.
Mārtiņš Hiršs, a Latvian security and disinformation expert, said that the issue is frequently discussed now because the U.S. Congress blocked U.S. aid to Ukraine for half a year. Other experts and country leaders emphasized the consequences of Ukraine not receiving military support.
“It is not certain that Russia would attack [if Ukraine loses the war], but the strategic logic says that the Baltics are weak as opposed to Russia,” Hiršs said.
Jitters over the U.S. election
The United States approved the Ukrainian aid package at the end of April 2024 but that didn’t alleviate all concerns. Hiršs said that presidential candidate Donald Trump has been unsupportive or, at best, ambiguous about his support of Ukraine.
“It has a huge impact on the security in the Baltics,” Hiršs said. “In his previous presidency, Trump caused disagreements among the allied countries which weakens NATO. If Europe and NATO is united against Russia, we are strong. If we are divided, we are weak.”
The possibility has reopened old wounds in the Baltics. With a combined population of only six million across the three countries, many fear they are too small to withstand an attack.
“There’s a common expression — they decide, and we pay the price,” Barševskis said, characterizing the sentiment in the Baltics regarding their ability to stand up to world powers.
Gretel Juhansoo, a 22-year-old from Estonia, said she has always known about the possibility of war in her home country, but now the prospect seems more real. Juhansoo says, for example, that she has always wanted to experience living abroad at some point, but now it feels like she might be facing a deadline.
“I have this anxiety — will I move quickly enough?” she said. “Will I be able to leave before it’s too late?”
Preparing for war but hoping for peace
The situation is similar for those around her. Peace has become a major concern whenever discussing future plans with friends.
“If we ever talk about having a family or building a home in Estonia, it always comes to the question of whether we can do that, if it’s safe,” Juhansoo said.
Barševskis says the topic is frequently discussed in his life as well. He has often talked about it with his family and feels strongly that he would stay and fight. The media has reported that these concerns are also increasingly reflected in the real estate market across the Baltics. Estonians with means are buying property in Spain. Some Lithuanians are postponing buying homes in their country.
The trends are similar in Latvia, according to Aigars Šmits, the head of the board of the Latvian Association of Real Estate Transactions. He said agents are reporting a notable increase in real estate purchases in Tenerife by wealthy Latvians.
Šmits says people are not necessarily looking to flee the country immediately, but rather see it as an opportunity for income and a safety net in case of war. He also noted that the real estate market in the country has slowed down, but he is unsure to what extent it is due to war anxiety as opposed to other factors.
Remilitarising a nation
Hiršs acknowledged that people are nervous as these issues are discussed more frequently by country leaders and in the media but all of it is preparation for a worst case scenario that might never happen.
“It is what we have to do,” Hiršs said. “We have to prepare for the worst-case scenario. If we prepare for the worst, it doesn’t mean it will happen. In fact, it’s the opposite.” He feels safer than ever now that there is more preparedness, he said.
Hiršs points to a growing NATO presence in the Baltics and trainings that are not only theoretical but play out real scenarios of action in case of threat. Hiršs believes Finland and Sweden recently joining NATO also massively improved the security in the Baltics. Meanwhile the Baltic states are investing more in their safety and strengthening their borders.
Hiršs acknowled that turning planned improvements into reality takes time, but steps are being taken.
“The challenges are real,” Hiršs said. “In the last 20-30 years, our states and societies became very demilitarized, spending little on defence. People also don’t know what to do in crisis situations.”
questions to consider:
- What happened to Latvia during World War Two?
- Why do people in the Baltic States fear an invasion by Russia?
- If you feared invasion of your country by another nation, would you leave for safety or stay to fight? Why?
Sabīne Bērziņa is News Decoder’s user experience manager for its Promoting Media Literacy & Youth Citizen Journalism through Mobile Stories project. She is a media literacy curriculum and tool developer, as well as a journalist with nine years of experience in the media industry. She lives and works in Latvia.
Read more News Decoder articles about Russia and the West: