As the planet heats up and extreme weather events get more common, the United States slashes funding to its weather services. What does that mean for the world?
Thunderstorm over Watson Lake in Prescott Arizona. (Credit: Bob Larson/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Digital Collection)
Advanced notice of a coming storm or heatwave — even just 24 hours — can cut the damage from an extreme weather event by up to 30%.
Simply, early warning systems can save lives.
So if a society wants to protect lives, infrastructure and economies, one of the best investments they can make is to strengthen accurate weather forecasting.
That’s why it is so troubling that Trump administration in the United States has cut funding to the U.S. National Weather Service resulting in the loss of more than 550 employees due to terminations and buyouts. On 2 May 2025, five former heads of the National Weather Service wrote a public joint letter saying they were “deeply concerned” with the cuts and the proposals for budget cuts.
“Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life,” the letter warned.
A fall off of forecasting
Already, the lack of staff means coordinated and timed release of weather balloons nationally has stopped in places causing critical gaps for forecasts.
Meteorology — the science of weather — has never been so precise due to scientific observations done frequently and accurately throughout 24 hours. Observations are the basis for weather forecasts and weather warnings worldwide.
Learn more about Correspondent Tira Shubart
The term ‘observations’ comes from the days trained weather observers recorded standard meteorological information. Now observations from radiosondes — attached to weather balloons rising to the upper stratosphere — collect data on temperature, humidity, air pressure and wind.
Automated surface-observing systems on land provide real-time data and satellites gather imagery and more data which is fed into supercomputers to provide forecasts.
So what are the benefits of accurate weather forecasts?
Staying prepared for the worst
Evan Thompson, the director of the Meteorological Service in Jamaica, has seen his island hit by extreme weather events as seasonal hurricanes have become more severe.
Thompson said that people need to know how to protect themselves from extreme weather such as tropical storms and hurricanes.
“Whether it means moving to higher ground in the moment or at least ensuring you don’t take chances crossing flooded roadways that are with waters moving fast, or rivers,” he said.
Thompson wants his country to be prepared for severe weather. “More data always means better observations which in turn leads to better forecasts.”
Over the last decades, the accuracy of weather forecasting in the United States has vastly increased what is known as storm resiliency, helped airlines reroute flights, farmers to plant crops at the optimal times and power companies to deal with demand from their customers.
Climate change intensifies weather.
Elsewhere, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the World Environmental Programme (WEP) have targeted the need for more observation stations in countries across the Middle East, Africa, South America and Pacific Island states, countries which are at risk of seeing economic progress wiped out by increasing impacts of climate change.
The WMO target is for weather observation to reach the levels of countries in Europe and the United States. But it may not be citing the United States as a model in the future. Since January, the United States has been reducing its capacity to provide weather data.
The cuts come at a time when the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events have increased due to climate change linked to human induced warming according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report of August 2021. However, the Trump administration has taken a decision to eliminate the term “climate change” from federal websites.
Especially dependent on accurate forecasts are the construction industry, agriculture, power companies and aviation.
Fabio Venuti of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts inputs weather data into a supercomputer. “Global weather forecasting like ours can assimilate data then produce high resolution local forecasts for each country,” he said. “They can be more prepared.”
Information farmers can rely on
Fabio said that the ability to forecast rain and drought can help farmers and governments plan food crops. And it can help public health officials prepare for and lessen the spread of diseases, such as malaria, that are affected by environmental factors as insects transported by winds.
Thompson in Jamaica said that the policies and plans that governments take are affected by weather forecasting. “For example, building codes can be adjusted because we recognise more severe downpours in areas that don’t normally have flooding,” he said.
In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the parent agency of the National Weather Service, is tasked with daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring. In 2025 NOAA has already lost 800 employees and a further 500 have been offered buyouts.
According to the former heads of the National Weather Service, the proposed cuts of close to 30% for NOAA would essentially eliminate NOAA’s research function for weather.
Inger Anderson, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, said that accurate weather forecasting pays off in many ways — lives saved, improved disaster management, protecting livelihoods, biodiversity, food security, water supply and economic growth.
Besides cutting staffing, the Trump administration has also cut back on funds used to record tidal predictions and weather disasters such as heat waves, hurricanes, tornados, floods and wildfires. The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information, the agency that collates historical meteorological records, will cease to update its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database beyond 2024. Previous records will be archived.
Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections says the database is the “gold standard” used to evaluate the costs of extreme weather. “It’s a major loss, since it comes at a time when we need to better understand how much climate change is increasing disaster losses,” he said.
Weather forecasting can tell us more than whether to carry an umbrella, when to plan a picnic or plant flowers in the gardens. Accurate forecasting can save your life, your home and your livelihood.
Questions to consider:
1. How do you use weather forecasts?
2. Should politicians work more closely with scientists?
3. Have you experienced a severe weather event?
Tira Shubart is a freelance journalist and media trainer based in London. She has produced television news and trained journalists across four continents for international broadcasters, including BBC News, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and Al Jazeera, over several decades.